Actual Mark Rates - SWSH


1
2	Actual Mark Rates for Pokémon Sword/Shield
3
4			No Mark Charm				Mark Charm
5			Weather		No Weather		Weather		No Weather
6	Mark Type	Chance	Fishing	No Fishing	Fishing	No Fishing	Fishing	No Fishing	Fishing	No Fishing
7	Rare Mark	1/1000	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	0.27%	0.28%	0.27%	0.29%
8	Personality Mark	1/100	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	2.69%	2.79%	2.74%	2.85%
9	Specific Personality	1/2800	0.0357%	0.0357%	0.0357%	0.0357%	0.0961%	0.0998%	0.0979%	0.1018%
10	Uncommon Mark	1/50	1.98%	1.98%	1.98%	1.98%	5.33%	5.53%	5.43%	5.64%
11	Weather Mark	1/50	1.94%	1.94%	-	-	5.22%	5.42%	-	-
12	Time Mark	1/50	1.90%	1.90%	1.94%	1.94%	5.11%	5.31%	5.32%	5.53%
13	Fishing Mark	1/25	3.72%	-	3.80%	-	10.02%	-	10.42%	-
14	No Mark		89.36%	93.08%	91.19%	94.98%	71.36%	80.66%	75.82%	85.70%
15	Any Mark		10.64%	6.92%	8.81%	5.02%	28.64%	19.34%	24.18%	14.30%
16
17	Mark rolls are checked in order. Calculations that ignore this will overestimate.
18	To get a mark, you must fail to get any previously checked marks.
19	e.g. To get uncommon mark, calculate as 999/1000 to fail rare mark x 99/100 to fail personality mark x 1/50 to get the uncommon mark = 0.019780199999999998
20
21	Mark charm gives +2 rolls, so the chance is the sum of getting it on first roll, second roll, and third roll. This is not the same as multiplying by 3.
22	Each roll checks the entire list, and only proceeds to the next roll if a mark was not obtained.
23	- Chance of getting it on first roll is exactly same as no mark charm. Second and third rolls do not happen.
24	- Chance of getting it on second roll is chance of no mark on first roll x chance of getting it on second roll. Third roll does not happen.
25	- Chance of getting it on third roll is chance of no mark on first 2 rolls x chance of getting it on third roll.
26
27	It is inaccurate to say that the rate of an uncommon mark is 1/50 (0.02) with no mark charm or 3/50 (0.06) with mark charm.
28
29	Reference:	SciresM #1	SciresM #2	SciresM #3
30	Math done by:	Anubis
31
32	* Note that Curry Mark is nowhere to be seen in any of these calculations. It is not affected by the Mark Charm, and a separate script pastes it onto 100% of Pokemon summoned into existence by making curry.


1
2	Expected Encounters per Mark for Pokémon Sword/Shield
3
4			Mark Charm				No Mark Charm
5			Weather		No Weather		Weather		No Weather
6	Mark Type	Chance	Fishing	No Fishing	Fishing	No Fishing	Fishing	No Fishing	Fishing	No Fishing
7	Rare Mark	1/1000	371.4	357.5	364.5	350.6	1000.0	1000.0	1000.0	1000.0
8	Personality Mark	1/100	37.2	35.8	36.5	35.1	100.1	100.1	100.1	100.1
9	Specific Personality	1/2800	1041.1	1002.0	1021.7	982.7	2802.8	2802.8	2802.8	2802.8
10	Uncommon Mark	1/50	18.8	18.1	18.4	17.7	50.6	50.6	50.6	50.6
11	Weather Mark	1/50	19.2	18.4	-	-	51.6	51.6	-	-
12	Time Mark	1/50	19.6	18.8	18.8	18.1	52.6	52.6	51.6	51.6
13	Fishing Mark	1/25	10.0	-	9.6	-	26.9	-	26.3	-
14	No Mark		1.4	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1
15	Any Mark		3.5	5.2	4.1	7.0	9.4	14.5	11.3	19.9
16
17	These are the expected number of encounters to get each type of Mark. This is like how there's a 1/512 chance of Masuda shiny egg.